A Story by Randy Olson

7 Billion Humans | National Geographic Magazine

By Randy Olson

Urbanization: Population shift into and out of the cities is a particularly interesting dynamic. We became an urban species just recently—fifty one percent of us now live in cities and from a green perspective that is not necessarily a bad thing. In 1800 three percent of the world’s population lived in cities. By 2007, it was fifty percent, and by 2050, seventy five percent or more will live in cities. Most of these super cities will border the world’s oceans. Three of the top twenty urban hubs are now in China—a result of the largest human migration in history when peasants moved to the cities for economic opportunity. Like all living things, in cities or not, we are hard-wired to acquire resources needed for our survival. Although tribal in nature and hunter-gatherer by design, many of us are now born in urban areas and into cultures where “needs” have far surpassed basic necessities like shelter, sustenance, and water. A large number of people in many other places, however, still struggle daily just to survive. On October 31, 2011, the world’s population hit the 7 billion mark. Two hundred years ago, there were only one billion people on the planet. In the past fifty years, the world’s population has more than doubled. When I began work on the story, “7 Billion,” for National Geographic Magazine, I thought I would be doing a story about carrying—basically that there are not enough resources and there are too many people and we are all going to be screwed in a Malthusian way. Then I read a book about all the predictions regarding carrying capacity over the last couple hundred years and how they were all wrong. Bottom line is, you can’t really talk about how many people the planet can support when things like fertilizer keep being invented, but you can talk forever about population shift. With the realization that this story was about population shift and how that affects the planet, we came up with four subcategories within which to concentrate the photography: Urbanization, Immigration, Empty Pockets (the very fertile poor), and Empty Nests (the depopulation of aging, rich countries). These four concepts are obviously inter-related. This gallery is the urbanization portion of this story.

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The largest urbanization in human history is from the Chinese countryside to the cities. It is predicted that 4.9 billion or 60 percent of humans worldwide will live in cities by 2030.
Huaxi Village (Farmer’s Village) is emblematic of the beginning of the massive urbanization of China and of the largest human migration in history from the rural areas of China into the cities. When I first visited China during the Tiananmen Square uprising it was difficult for people born in one city to move to another. If your identity papers said you belonged to Xian you had to stay in Xian even though you might want to move to one of Deng’s economic zones like Guangzhou to a have a higher paying job. We ran the checkpoints where they examined your identity papers during this time because the police did not have guns or radios. I remember police jumping up and down on their little daises in the middle of the road—literally hopping mad—but there was nothing they could do but be angry as we sped away. Not that many nationals had cars during that time, so they could stop them and check their identity papers and turn them away from a better life. When those checkpoints went away and there was free movement in China, 1.3 billion people finally had a chance to follow their dreams and moved to the cities. The Chinese mass migration into cities is a large part of why we are now an urban species. Fifty one percent of us live in urban areas throughout the world.
In Huaxi Village they didn’t have to migrate, they changed their model rural farm into a modern industrial city. They started factories, but initially worked in them secretly (no windows). When government officials came around, all the workers ran out into the fields and pretended to be peasants. They became the first and most successful capitalist exploitation of the collective. There have been 30,000 official government visits to this place to see how it is run every year. There are not many model farms left in China, and none with this wealth. This model farm runs about 80 factories, including garment factories and steel mills. Huaxi Village is touted by the current government as the most successful transition from farm to modern industrial city.

Urban Planning Museum | Urbanization in Shanghai, China
The City Planning Museum is just off People’s Square in the Puxi side of Shanghai. Models show not only the buildings that are already done, but also those planned for the future. All goes according to plan, but not with a lot of rights for individual Chinese.
Since 2000, China’s cities have expanded at an average rate of ten percent annually. The country’s urbanization rate increased from 17.4% in 1978 to 46.8% in 2009, a scale unprecedented in human history. Between 150 and 200 million migrant workers work part-time in the major cities, returning home to the countryside periodically with their earnings.
Today, the People’s Republic of China has dozens of cities with one million or more long-term residents, including the three global cities of Beijing, Hong Kong, and Shanghai. The figures in the table below are from the 2008 census, and are only estimates of the urban populations within administrative city limits; a different ranking exists when considering the total municipal populations (which includes suburban and rural populations). The large “floating populations” of migrant workers make conducting censuses in urban areas difficult; the figures below do not include the floating population, only long-term residents.

Crowds on the Streets of Calcutta (Kolkata) | India
The rapid growth of cities like Chicago in the late nineteenth century and Calcutta a century later can be attributed largely to rural-urban migration. This kind of growth is especially commonplace in developing countries. The urbanization of the world’s population over the twentieth century has been dramatic—13% of the population lived in cities in 1900, 29% in 1950, 49% in 2005, and likely 60% (4.9 billion) by 2030. According to the UN State of the World Population 2007 report, sometime in the middle of 2007, the majority of people worldwide will be living in towns or cities for the first time in history; this is referred to as the arrival of the “Urban Millennium” or the ‘tipping point.’ In regard to future trends, it is estimated that 93% of urban growth will occur in developing nations—80% of it occurring in Asia and Africa.

Urbanization | China Migration From Rural Areas to Be Servant Class for New Wealth
Women Learn to be Cooks and Maids for Newly Wealthy Chuppies
Girls from rural countryside learn to be maids for the newly wealthy comfort class at the Fuping Vocational Skills Training School. Since opening up its economy in 1978 and moving toward a market economy, China has lifted about 400 million people out of poverty, but this has led to wide income inequalities that the Communist Party is trying to address through its notion of a “harmonious society” that has a more even distribution of the benefits in recent decades of speedy economic growth. Migrant workers in China are mostly people from impoverished regions who go to more urban and prosperous coastal regions in search of work. According to Chinese government statistics, the current number of migrant workers in China is estimated at 120 million (approximately 9% of the population). China is now experiencing the largest mass migration of people from the countryside to the city in history. An estimated 230 million Chinese (2010), roughly equivalent to two-thirds the population of the U.S., have left the countryside and migrated to the cities in recent years.

The “Crane” is the National Bird of China | Urbanization in Guangzhou, China
This is the China (Guangzhou) International Automobile Exhibition; it is one of the biggest on the planet. When people have MORE STUFF it is also creates more demand for resources. China already consumes more of seven of the eight most basic resources on the planet (the eighth being oil). They need THEIR plastic objects, their cars, their air conditioning. A (dirty) coal power plant comes online every four to five days in China that could power a city the size of San Diego.

Urban crowds in Churchgate Railway Station in Mumbai, India. By 2030 60% (4.9 billion) worldwide will live in cities.
Crowds come off the trains in the morning rush at Churchgate Railway Station in Mumbai. This used to be the easiest place to photograph because of a lunch counter with open windows right over the station where photographers and others could freely come and go. Unfortunately, Churchgate was the site of a terrorist bombing in 2006 and afterward, the lunch area was transformed into one of the most secure anti-terrorist offices in India. After many weeks of trying to get in because my editor said this was the scene they wanted for the lead for the 7 Billion story in National Geographic Magazine, the officials said if I was Indian they would let me in. I am not Indian, but my fixer is. So after hiring someone else to go to government offices for a solid three weeks, we got permission and I sent my fixer up to the anti-terrorism offices with my camera and framing instructions, and I sat in a van we’ve hired that has the movie “GI Joe” blaring in Hindi from the van’s onboard DVD player. The same runner who has been going to offices for three weeks shuttles cards back and forth from my fixer to me. I put the cards in another camera, look at the framing, exposure, lens use, and send back instructions to make the photograph better. After about 4 hours we have this photograph, and a small victory over Indian bureaucracy. National Geographic Magazine never used the photograph.

Shopping Mall Area | Urbanization | Guangzhou, China
There is a reason Guangzhou is the first city in China to reach first world status in 2008. Everyone in GZ (outside of the migrant population) is making an average of $830 a month. Money has approximately four times more buying power in China than the United States. So that $830 a month is actually $3320 a month in our economy. That is the same buying power on average as citizens have in Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico.

Subway Crowds | Urbanization | Guangzhou, China
There is a reason Guangzhou is the first city in China to reach first world status in 2008. Everyone in GZ (outside of the migrant population) is making an average of $830 a month. Money has approximately four times more buying power in China than the United States. So that $830 a month is actually $3320 a month in our economy. That is the same buying power on average as citizens have in Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico.

Shibuyu Intersection | Most Highly Trafficked in the World | Tokyo
This Japanese intersection in Shibuyu, Tokyo, is the most highly trafficked intersection in the world.

Urbanization in Pilgrimage City Varanasi, India
Streets are crowded in the pilgrimage city of Varanasi in India.
India’s cities are home to about 340 million people, or 30 percent of the population. And by 2030 the estimates are 590 million people and 40 percent of the population. This is below the world average of 51% of all humans living in urban environments.

Urbanization Trends in India | Crowds in Pilgrimage City Varanasi
Streets are crowded in the pilgrimage city of Varanasi in India.
India’s cities are home to about 340 million people, or 30 percent of the population. And by 2030 the estimates are 590 million people and 40 percent of the population. This is below the world average of 51% of all humans living in urban environments.

Urbanization problems: Buildings Demolished | Shanghai, China
These buildings will disappear eventually because the property beneath them is just too valuable. For the moment, however, the govternment has cooled the housing market by imposing a twenty percent resale tax. If you want to see what this block will look like in the future you can just go to the City Planning Museum off People’s Square in the Puxi side of Shanghai. A 3D model of the city shows not only the buildings that are already done, but also those planned for the future.

Turkey Immigration and In-Migration Urbanization Rate is 70%
Muslims from Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Sudan flock to Istanbul to get good jobs in a Muslim-friendly and economically viable city. Turkey is 70% urban while the rest of the world is only 51% urban.
Mollatasi Street in Istanbul reminds me of a 1940s set for a movie about immigration. The street is choked with immigrants primarily because the detention center for immigrants is in this neighborhood and many of them are waiting for family members to be allowed into the country. These people often settle near where they are released. This looks like the old Istanbul before the two million turned into twelve million. Turkey is primarily affected by internal migration and is also a spinning top for migration to Europe from Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Sudan. Sudanese go first to Libya and then on to Turkey. Turkey is very late to the party as far as effectively managing immigration, which is one of the factors they must deal with for EU membership. They are still operating with a 1951 law that limits immigration to only wealthy west European countries. Meanwhile Africa receives more refugees than Europe. 250,000 foreigners seek a better life by moving through Turkey, but few want to stay. But according to the head UNHCR immigration lawyer, if you are Muslim you tend to stay longer.

Urbanization | Black Sea Towns move to Istanbul, Turkey
I traced a few of the Black Sea families, now in Istanbul, including Fatmagul Tarhan (the woman on the center) who is part of the family I photographed in their rural yayla (nomadic farm) life in the Black Sea 10 years ago. They were forced to move to Istanbul for work. Fatmagul even came here by herself without a husband to get work in a hospital’s medical records department. They say that living in the city is like living in a prison. In the yayla their doors were always unlocked and they were always in and out of their friend’s houses. Here they have layers of security and don’t know their neighbors. If they could have stayed on their yayla they would have, they say. There are only 10 girls left in their village. All the women I talked to were in agreement that boys leave to find a job and then come back to the yayla to find a wife and then take her to the big city. These girls go to the university, or work as nurses or have office jobs. There is a black sea society in their concrete canyon that feels like a soup kitchen. Twice a year they eat from huge pots of nettle soup and talk about what their agricultural lifestyle was like. Fatmagul was determined to make a career on her own and stonewalled any attempts at marriage in her hometown while taking care of her siblings and grandparents. Turkey is primarily affected by internal migration. Istanbul’s population was two million thirty years ago and is now twelve million. In thirty years Turkey has gone from being seventy percent rural to seventy percent urban. The average in the world is fifty one percent urban.
The world became an urban species a few years ago and globally fifty one percent of us live in cities. Turkey is primarily affected by internal migration. Istanbul’s population was two million thirty years ago and is now twelve million. People I photographed in their yayla (nomadic farm) lifestyle 10 years ago are now all office workers in Istanbul. There just isn’t a good way to make a living in the rural areas anymore. In thirty years Turkey has gone from being seventy percent rural to seventy percent urban.

De-Urbanization | Flight to the Cities | Deserted Black Sea | Turkey
This is the Cepne area of Black Sea coast. I photographed here almost ten years ago and now all of these communities are basically gone. The women in this photograph voted every year whether to keep their costumes that herald back to the Genovese traders. Now the women are almost all gone from here. The world became an urban species a few years ago and globally fifty one percent of us live in cities. Turkey has a seventy percent urbanization rate. The Black Sea coast is part of a massive exodus into Istanbul.

De-Urbanization | Flight to the Cities | Ghost Town | Ushguli, Georgia
Ghost towns are not just outside Moscow or in the center of the United States, de-urbanization is a worldwide phenomenon. As people leave the countryside in droves, they leave ghost towns in their wake like this town on the Georgia – Russia border. Ushguli, is the highest settled point in Europe, a World Heritage Site, a ghost town and only has one road access which bandits control. Anyone who can get out does. 51% of the world is now living in cities.

De-Urbanization | Flight to the Cities | Ghost Town | Moscow, Russia
As people leave the countryside in droves, they leave ghost towns in their wake like this one just outside Moscow. The church is from the 1680s and the granary belongs to a deserted farm in Novo-Tishevoye. These ghost towns are all around Moscow—the population continues to dwindle as everyone who can leave these areas for greater economic opportunity does. In Moscow they are paying women in excess of $10,000 to have a second child. 51% of the world are now living in cities.

Large group of untouchables bathing in former British horse watering trough in Calcutta, Bengal State, India.
Crowds on the streets of Calcutta gather around these corner water fountains that were put in place by the colonizing British to water their horses. Now, with so many people in Calcutta, it has become a mass bathing area. The rapid growth of cities like Chicago in the late nineteenth century and Calcutta a century later can be attributed largely to rural-urban migration. This kind of growth is especially commonplace in developing countries. The urbanization of the world’s population over the twentieth century has been dramatic—13% of the population lived in cities in 1900, 29% in 1950, 49% in 2005, and likely 60% (4.9 billion) by 2030. According to the UN State of the World Population 2007 report, sometime in the middle of 2007, the majority of people worldwide will be living in towns or cities for the first time in history; this is referred to as the arrival of the “Urban Millennium” or the ‘tipping point.’ In regard to future trends, it is estimated that 93% of urban growth will occur in developing nations—80% of it occurring in Asia and Africa.

Dharavi Slums | Largest Slums in the World | Movement to Mumbai, India
These are the largest slums in the world. There is a massive influx to Mumbai for a better economic life and this is the only place for these workers to live. The world bank is trying to work out an arrangement where all of these squatters will get about twice the space they have now in new buildings, but it is complicated.

End of Roman Empire | Genoa Italy | Population Decline
The most urbanized area of the Roman Empire was Italy, which had an estimated rate of urbanization of 32%. Genoa is responsible for the Black Death being imported into Europe in 1347 from a trading post at Caffa on the Black Sea. Ever since the Black Death, we have added to population numbers. With the shift in world economy and trade routes to the New World and away from the Mediterranean, Genoa’s political and economic power began a steady decline in the 1800s. Genoa now has the lowest birth rate and is the most aged of any large Italian city. Genoa is also in a country that is not keeping up with the replacement rate and rural towns outside Genoa are desperate to get children into their schools and are actually paying people to move into their communities. This is a street scene in Genoa on XX Settempre Street and Piazza de Ferrari.

7 Billion Humans | National Geographic Magazine

7 Billion Humans | National Geographic Magazine

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