A Story by Randy Olson

7 Billion Humans | Empty Nests in the Aging Developed World

Empty Nests: Europe, Russia and Japan are aging and producing more empty nests than offspring. Every child in Russia is precious, and valuable—the government encourages women to have a second child by paying up to $14,000, roughly equal to the average Muscovite’s annual salary and two year’s average salary outside Moscow. There were 1.8 million babies born in Russia last year, only 27,000 more than deaths during the same period. Fem Bots are coming for lonely men in Japan—obviously not propelling the population forward. The elderly-bots are coming as well since there is not enough human support for aging Japanese. Robots are being built to move in and take over, not just to carry people around the nursing home, but …

7 Billion Humans | Empty Nests in the Aging Developed World

By Randy Olson

Empty Nests: Europe, Russia and Japan are aging and producing more empty nests than offspring. Every child in Russia is precious, and valuable—the government encourages women to have a second child by paying up to $14,000, roughly equal to the average Muscovite’s annual salary and two year’s average salary outside Moscow. There were 1.8 million babies born in Russia last year, only 27,000 more than deaths during the same period. Fem Bots are coming for lonely men in Japan—obviously not propelling the population forward. The elderly-bots are coming as well since there is not enough human support for aging Japanese. Robots are being built to move in and take over, not just to carry people around the nursing home, but primarily as companions to combat Kodokushi (lonely death), in a country where nineteen percent of women die with no one around them. China is also aging with many draconian policies still in place and at the same time, the economic reality of having even one child is too much for some young Chinese couples.

According to the UN, the world’s population reached 7 billion on October 31, 2011. Two hundred years ago, there were only 1 billion people on the planet. In the past fifty years, the world’s population has more than doubled.

When I began work on the story, “7 Billion,” for National Geographic Magazine, I thought I would be doing a story about carrying capacity—basically that there are not enough resources and there are too many people and we are all going to be screwed in a Malthusian way. Then I read a book about all the predictions regarding carrying capacity over the last couple hundred years and how they were all wrong. Bottom line is, you can’t really talk about how many people the planet can support when things like fertilizer keep being invented, but you can talk forever about population shift. And we do talk about it (how is that fence going along the Texas – Mexico border anyway?)

The best article I’ve read on this topic is “The New Population Bomb” in Foreign Affairs Magazine. Along with a massive amount of research, I did three long, onsite interviews with the former population minister in Uganda, the minister of immigration in Russia, and the head UN refugee agency (UNHCR) lawyer in Turkey. These interviews jibed with the Foreign Affairs article. So after the research, the interviews, and the realization that this story was about population shift and how that affects the planet, we came up with four subcategories within which to concentrate the field photography: Urbanization, Immigration, Empty Pockets (the very fertile undeveloped world), and Empty Nests (the depopulation of aging, rich countries).

These four concepts are interrelated. As the empty pockets in Sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere produce a huge population of young workers, the empty nests in Japan are building robots to take care of their elderly because they can’t import enough Filipinos. The obvious solution is immigration. The empty pockets need good educations and salaries and the empty nests need workers to take care of them. Like a rising tide—which you can watch from a lawn chair, willing it to stop, but it will rise anyway—immigration is an economic necessity that cannot be stopped. As the world’s population reaches 7 billion in 2011, 8 billion in 2025, and 9 billion in 2043, the repercussions for all of us will depend on how people move around our planet, how they consume, and the decisions they make as they go.

 

Read The Full Story
Companion and Nursing Home Robots and for Elderly | Kyoto, Japan Twendy One robot project at Waseda University: This robot is being programmed to help an elderly person out of bed and into a wheelchair, to pick up a straw and put it into a drink, and eventually to help around the kitchen and with shopping. The hardware is actually very sophisticated and uses top of the line sensors everywhere, including the very newest tactile sensors embedded in the palm and fingers of both hands (but the software to make all those sensors work in practical ways is lagging). The point of these photographs is that though this is not yet reality, it is okay in this culture to develop robots to help the elderly . . . a practical, analytical solution to a burgeoning elderly class in Japan. All of these robotics folks talk about studies showing that more and more elderly are isolated and have no one to relate to. In 2009, nineteen percent of Japan’s elderly died with no one around them. They have a word for it: “Kodokushi,” meaning “lonely death.”  
Shopping and Companion Robots and for Elderly | Kyoto, Japan A talking robot helps 69-year-old Nabeshima Akiko shop in a test conducted by researchers from Keihanna Science City near Kyoto. Making up 23 percent of the population, the 29 million elderly in Japan far outnumber the young, an unprecedented situation that raises concerns about who—or what—will support the old in the years ahead. The robotics folks at Keihanna Science City are developing robots to help the elderly with shopping and other chores, but mostly they are developing companions to combat kodo kushi (lonely death). The elderly Japanese person fills out a shopping list at home on their iPhone and when they walk into the store the robot recognizes them from the geolocation info in their iPhone and throws it arms in the air and says “you are here . . . and want to buy apples . . . we have some great new apples over here . . . come with me.” The robot accompanies the woman on her shopping tasks, carrying the basket and reminding her of the items on her list. The eyes of the robot follow her wherever she stands by paying attention to the iPhone geolocation data in order to give the elderly the impression they have a friend. 
Russian Women Paid to Have 2nd Child | Empty Moscow Maternity, Russia Yulia Smirnova waits to be released at the Moscow Planning Center and Reproduction Maternity Home. Yulia made the decision to have a second child based on the fact that she would get “mother’s capital” which would help her move with her husband and daughter out of the one room they share in her mother-in-law’s apartment. Once she had the child she loved it so much she wondered why the money was the main motivation—she was so happy to have her second child. At the Maternity Home about 8,000 babies, or about 20 per day, are born every year. This is the most of any maternity hospital in Russia. In 2009, 117,000 babies were delivered in all of Moscow and a total of 1,800,000 were born in Russia, which is only 27,000 more than deaths that year. Russia is basically at the replacement rate, but there are not as many parents so the state has instituted a number of incentive policies including free housing for immigrants and a one-time payment of over $10,000 for a woman to have either a second, third or fourth baby.
Russian Women Paid to Have 2nd Child | Population Issues, Russia The government is worried about Russia’s low birth rate. Russia’s population keeps falling and is now 142 million, down from its peak of 148 million in the 1990s. Dasha Verstelle has her baby at the Moscow Planning Center and Reproduction Maternity Home. Her mother, Olga Rudneva, calls the family waiting outside the hospital on her cell phone and the midwife holds up the child to the window so the family can see it. At the Maternity Home about 8,000 babies, or about 20 per day, are born every year. This is the most of any maternity hospital in Russia. In 2009, 117,000 babies were delivered in all of Moscow and a total of 1,800,000 were born in Russia, which is only 27,000 more than deaths that year. Russia is basically at the replacement rate, but there are not as many parents so the state has instituted a number of incentive policies including free housing for immigrants and a one-time payment of over $10,000 for a woman to have either a second, third or fourth baby.
A nurse at the Centre for Family Planning and Reproduction in Moscow holds up a newborn for excited family members waiting outside. The government is thrilled by births as well. Russia’s population keeps falling and is now 142 million, down from its peak of 148 million in the 1990s. Dasha Verstelle has her baby at the Moscow Planning Center and Reproduction Maternity Home. Her mother, Olga Rudneva, calls the family waiting outside the hospital on her cell phone and the midwife holds up the child to the window so the family can see it. At the Maternity Home about 8,000 babies, or about 20 per day, are born every year. This is the most of any maternity hospital in Russia. In 2009, 117,000 babies were delivered in all of Moscow and a total of 1,800,000 were born in Russia, which is only 27,000 more than deaths that year. Russia is basically at the replacement rate, but there are not as many parents so the state has instituted a number of incentive policies including free housing for immigrants and a one-time payment of over $10,000 for a woman to have either a second, third or fourth baby.
Russian Women Paid to Have 2nd Child | Moscow Maternity Ward, Russia Alyona Kozlova, 23, gives birth at the Moscow Planning Center and Reproduction Maternity Home where about 8,000 babies, or about 20 per day, are born every year. This is the most of any maternity hospital in Russia. In 2009, 117,000 babies were delivered in all of Moscow and a total of 1,800,000 were born in Russia, which is only 27,000 more than deaths that year. Russia is basically at the replacement rate, but there are not as many parents so the state has instituted a number of incentive policies including free housing for immigrants and a one-time payment of over $10,000 for a woman to have either a second, third or fourth baby. The federal program called “Mother’s Capital” started in 2007 and stipulates that every mother gets this money after having a second (third, fourth, etc) baby. The law also stipulates that Mother’s Capital can be invested into: 1.Improvement of living conditions 2.Education of the child (after the child reaches the age of 3 years) 3.Invested into mother’s pension At present the government reports that the program has started to work, though some experts disagree. The latest reports from the government’s Ministry of Health Care saw that during first quarter of 2009, 394,300 babies were born in Russia, which is 4% more compared with the same period in 2008.
Oldest Man in the World | Japan The day this photograph is taken, Kimura Jiroemon is 113 years old and the oldest man in the world. There are two women in Japan that are older. His grand-daughter-in-law, Kimura Eiko, is taking care of him today. He retired around the time I was born (1957). He was born on April 19, 1897 (or the Meiji year-30), and worked at post offices for 38 years. Japan’s fertility rate (average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime) is 1.23 and it is the most rapidly ageing country in the world. Japan’s population began declining in 2005 and the median age there is 41.3. The two oldest people in the world (112 and 114, both are women) live in Japan. By 2055, forty percent of the population will be over 65 and there will be almost 30 million fewer people. Some demographers have predicted that it is already impossible for Japan to recover from its population plunge. By 2030 there will be two workers to support each aged person, down from the current three. The government has introduced measures to encourage employers to retain employees and is extending the retirement age to 65. Japan has a cultural opposition to immigration, although it does utilize resident labor. Japan does have a thriving robotics industry and it appears that humanoid robots could take up the worker shortfall in the aged care industry. It may also become a major export item to other developed countries in need of a similar solution. At the moment the Japanese government spends approximately 8% of GDP on health care but this is expected to rise by 2–3% per year and co-contributions by patients have tripled since 1996. Three fifths of all farmers are over 65, as are two out of five people living in rural communities. This raises issues for farming of all products, but especially rice. Finally, young educated women are choosing not to marry, because it is much harder for women to work once they have children—the family-friendly structure is just not there to support them.
Japan’s Aging Population | Robotic Legs for Elderly The Rehabilitation Section at the Akanekai Showa hospital uses these HAL legs to help elderly who have a hard time walking. These are in use on a daily basis. Outpatients (usually) come in twice a week and have a number of electrodes placed in key areas on their legs and lower torso. These electrodes monitor minor changes in muscle activity and transfer that information to the robotic joints. The woman being put into the legs is EMOTO, Chiyoko (89). She had fractures of her right and left thighbone. The main therapist working with her is TSURUGA, Mai (P.T.). All of these robotics folks talk about studies showing that more and more elderly are isolated and have no one to relate to. In 2009, nineteen percent of Japan’s elderly died with no one around them. They have a word for it: “Kodokushi,” meaning “lonely death.”
Empty Nests | Too Many Elderly | Shimonoseki City, Japan Japan has too many elderly and not enough young people to staff all the nursing homes and care units in hospitals, so they have a program that brings in thousands of Filipino and Indonesian workers just for that purpose. In this hospital robotic “legs” are used as therapy to help those too frail to walk. Immigrant workers are being brought in for the same reason the robotics companies are working on solutions for a growing, lonely elderly population. All of these robotics folks talk about studies showing that more and more elderly are isolated and have no one to relate to. In 2009, nineteen percent of Japan’s elderly died with no one around them. They have a word for it: “Kodokushi,” meaning “lonely death.”
Tokyo Subway | Japan is the Most Rapidly Aging Country in the World Japan’s fertility rate (average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime) is 1.23 and it is the most rapidly ageing country in the world. Japan’s population began declining in 2005 and the median age there is 41.3. The two oldest people in the world (112 and 114, both are women) live in Japan. By 2055, forty percent of the population will be over 65 and there will be almost 30 million fewer people. Some demographers have predicted that it is already impossible for Japan to recover from its population plunge. By 2030 there will be two workers to support each aged person, down from the current three. The government has introduced measures to encourage employers to retain employees and is extending the retirement age to 65. Japan has a cultural opposition to immigration, although it does utilize resident labor. Japan does have a thriving robotics industry and it appears that humanoid robots could take up the worker shortfall in the aged care industry. It may also become a major export item to other developed countries in need of a similar solution. At the moment the Japanese government spends approximately 8% of GDP on health care but this is expected to rise by 2–3% per year and co-contributions by patients have tripled since 1996. Three fifths of all farmers are over 65, as are two out of five people living in rural communities. This raises issues for farming of all products, but especially rice. Finally, young educated women are choosing not to marry, because it is much harder for women to work once they have children—the family-friendly structure is just not there to support them.
La Scala Musician  in Giuseppe Verdi Mansion and Elderly Home  Giuseppe Verdi (1813–1901) willed his home to be turned into a nursing home for elderly La Scala musicians after his death. La Scala is where many of Verdi’s operas played and all the royalties from his operas were given to the Verdi foundation that supports this nursing home. If you qualify, they charge eighty percent of your pension—up to a maximum of 1,500 euros a month. Wives of musicians qualify as well. In this photograph, flute player Paolo Varetto waits for an event to start in a crafts room at the Verdi nursing home.
Giuseppe Verdi willed his home to care for elderly La Scala musicians Giuseppe Verdi (1813–1901) willed his home to be turned into a nursing home for elderly La Scala musicians after his death. La Scala is where many of Verdi’s operas played and all the royalties from his operas were given to the Verdi foundation that supports this nursing home. If you qualify, they charge eighty percent of your pension—up to a maximum of 1,500 euros a month. Wives of musicians qualify as well. In this photograph, composer Pasquale Montesano and flute player Paolo Varetto relax before a performance for a tour group.

Find a Photograph

TIP: Use this to find a stock photo in the OlsonFarlow stock archives. Enter a name, region, country, activity or keyword phrase, For example: “Alligator, Okefenokee Swamp”

Subscribe To Newsletter

"*" indicates required fields

Hidden
Name
Hidden
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.

© 2024 olsonfarlow.com. All rights reserved. Images are protected under the U.S. DMCA.

To Top ▲